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Baccarat Strategy


Baccarat Bet ExpectationsNow that we have talked about the idea of recognizing patterns in the game of baccarat, and what that information is supposed to tell us, what is the variable; in other words, how does all of it manifest itself in the betting? What does this tell us about how we are going to size our bets in order to maximize each situation?

Well, if you are following what is going on with the cards that are dealt, It certainly amounts to a function of how much "probability" figures into how the law of averages works or what chance there is for the pendulum to swing back the other way. After all, that it was we are expecting when we take this approach in baccarat.

Some people will want to follow a tactic where a flat amount of money is bet all the time, and that keeping track of percentages and the discrepancies that outcomes create is good enough to dictate the side to bet on and doesn't need to do anything more. That's fine, but other players would like to decipher and "advantage" point and figure out a way to bet in proportion to it. There seems to be a reasonable basis to at least explore this.

Remember that you are making a lot of quick calculations in your head for this strategy to have any relevance at all, but at the same time, you don't want to get so bogged down with numbers that you are paralyzed. Since when you are at the baccarat table there are quick decisions to be made, you may want to simplify your approach here, in the way of reducing the key numbers to something that can be estimated with a reasonable degree of efficiency.

What you have to keep in mind here is that what you are doing, in effect, is attaching a value to your bet that is in proportion to what YOUR expectation would be at that particular time.

Let's see if we can illustrate this. If there have been nine Banker hands that have come out in the first 21 hands, that is a 42.9% rate, so over the rest of a 100-hand stretch, to get back to what the normal expectation is, that Banker hand would have to win 37 more times in the next 79 hands, which translates to a frequency of 46.8%.

Because we know the Banker hand will win 45.9% of the time, we then know that is only about .9% more than usual, and you may determine that the discrepancy is not worth increasing to a $10 bet (based on a bet spread of 1-to-10 and incremental units of $5).

Let's take another amount to illustrate differences. For example, if you had only six Banker bets that had won out of those 21 hands, you would be looking at a 28.6% frequency, which means at the very minimum, to come back to the point where the frequency is normal, about 40 Banker hands would be due to win out of the next 79, which comes to 50.6%, and that may be worth a bump up to $10 or maybe even $15.

Try this a little. It may be a way to stretch a perceived advantage you may have at any one particular time.

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